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How many Children Experience Sexual abuse?

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Selynt
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How many Children Experience Sexual abuse?

Příspěvekod Selynt » 19.8.2018 2:44:08

Many nonprofit organizations and even some universities continue to blatantly lie about how common child sexual abuse (CSA) actually is, so I am going to post on here, the real prevalence of CSA in the U.S. It is absolutely disgusting how inaccurate most child abuse statistics on the internet are because it leads to a misinformed population, and I have even seen these fake statistics being used in scientific studies.

First a look at the fake statistics that are promoted by different websites:

victimsofcrime.org - 1 in 5 girls is a victim of child sexual abuse.
d2l.org - 1 in 10 children will be sexually abused before age 18.
huffingtonpost.com - 20% of girls (1 in 5) will be sexually abused before age 18.
rainn.org - 1 in 9 girls under 18 experience CSA at the hands of an adult.
nctsn.org - 1 in 4 girls will experience CSA before the age of 18.

It should not be hard to tell that these statistics are complete and utter nonsense because they contradict each other extremely heavily, but there is actually logical scientific research that proves these statistics to be false.

If you can't be bothered to sit through this entire post, the real statistics are:

~1 in 1250 (0.08%) U.S. children will become victims of CSA in one given year.
~1 in 1540 (0.06%) U.S. children will will become victims of CSA by an adult in one given year.

~1 in 110 (0.9%) U.S. children will experience CSA over the span of 18 years.
~1 in 140 (0.7%) of U.S. children will become victims of CSA by an adult over the span of 18 years.

I calculated these by fist finding the total number of CSA victims in the USA every year. Then, I found the number of new CSA victims ever year. Next, I calculated the number of US children that are abused by adults vs by other children. All of this is shown in my calculations that I will post.

All of the numbers used in my calculations were taken from the United States Government.
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Selynt
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Re: How many Children Experience Sexual abuse?

Příspěvekod Selynt » 19.8.2018 2:51:21

How many Children are Sexually Abused in the U.S.?

First, we will find how many children are sexually abused in one given year in the United States, and use that calculation, along with calculations of the likelihood of sexual abuse at any given age and the likelihood of a child to be a repeat victim, to predict how many children will become victims of CSA before or during age 18.

The first and most important part of this research is to know how many children there are in the U.S. According to the U.S. Census, there was exactly 323,426,981 people in the U.S. as of July 4th, 2016, and about 23.24% of the total population was 17 years or younger (https://www.census.gov/popclock/). To find the total population of people 17 or younger in the U.S. in 2016, we use the following calculations:
0.2324 (323,426,981) = x
75,164,430 = x or 75.16 (10^6) =x

There are approximately 75.16 million children in the U.S. The next step is to find out how many children are sexually abuse every year in the United States. According to the document, Child Maltreatment 2016, published by the U.S. Department of Health & Human Service, et al., they found that in 2016, there were 676,000 victims of all forms of child abuse, and 8.5% of child abuse victims were victims of CSA (U.S. Department of Health & Human Service, et al., 18, https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/f ... cm2016.pdf). 51% of victims were girls, and 48.6% of victims were boys. Since this is not a significant difference, we will calculate them as the same for both genders. To find the number of CSA victims in 2016, we use the following equation:
0.085 (676,000) = y
57,460 = x or 5.7 (10^4) = y

Approximately 57 thousand children experience CSA every year. If we use the following calculation, we can find out the approximate probability that any given child will be a result of CSA in any given year by using the total child population in the U.S. in 2016 [75.16 (10^6)], and total child victim population of 2016 [5.7 (10^4)].
[5.7 (10^4)] / [75.16 (10^6)] = z
0.00075838 = z or 7.6 (10^-4) = z
(76/4) / (100,000/4) = z
19/25,000 = z or 0.076% = z

Approximately 19 out of every 25,000 children in 2016 were victims of child abuse. If we were to simplify this to a 1/? fraction such as most other statistics, the best whole number we could is calculated using this equation:
(20/20) / (25,000/20) = a
1/1,250 = a or 0.0008 = a

The quality of this estimate can be compared to the actual like so:
0.0008 = |0.00076 + b|
0.0008 - 0.00076 = |0.00076 - 0.00076 + b|
0.00004 = b or 0.004% = b

Approximately 1 in every 1,250 children of a random age between 0 and 18 were victims of CSA in one given year being calculated with the likelihood of the year of 2016 in the U.S. The problem with this is that not all victims of child abuse are new victims of child abuse so this number, although it is an accurate representation of how many victims there were of CSA in one year, is not an accurate representation of how many non-previously abused children will be victims of CSA in any given year.

According to Child Maltreatment 2016, only 469,307 abused children in 2016 were not previously abused (U.S. Department of Health & Human Service, et al., 34, https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/f ... cm2016.pdf). This means that 30.68% of victims of CSA were not new victims, and 69.32% of CSA victims in 2016 were new victims. Using this number, we will calculate a and b using the same formulas:
0.085 (469,307) = y
39,891 = x or 4.0 (10^4) = y
______
[4.0 (10^4)] / [75.16 (10^6)] = z
0.00053220 = z or 5.3 (10^-4) = z or
53/100,000 = z or 0.053% = z
______
(55/5) / (100,000/5) = n
11/20,000 = n or 0.00055 = n
(10/10) / (20,000/10) = a
1/2,000 = a or 0.0005 = a
0.0005 = |0.00053220 + b|
0.0005 - 0.00053 = |0.00053 - 0.00053 + b|
0.00003 = b or 0.003% = b

This shows the likelihood of a child becoming a victim of CSA in one year (2016).
According to Child Maltreatment 2016, there was approximately the same number of victims 2016 as in 2012 (https://www.acf.hhs.gov/sites/default/f ... cm2016.pdf). Using this, we can assume that this trend will continue, and we can assume that there will be the same likelihood of a child become a victim of CSA over the next several years.

To complete the calculation, we must multiply the value of "a" by 18 since children have that many years of childhood to find the likelihood that any given, non-previously abused, child will become a new victim of CSA before their 18th birthday.
.0005 (18) = c
.009 = c or 9/1000
we will estimate this most accurately by rounding up to 10.
(10/10) / (1,000/10) = a
1/100 = a or 0.01 = a
0.01 = |0.009 + b|
0.01 - 0.009 = |0.009 - 0.009 + b|
0.001 = b or 0.1% = b

How many Victims were Sexually Abused by adults?

According to the U.S. Department of Justice, 23% of child sexual abusers are other children (https://www.nsopw.gov/en-US/Education/FactsStatistics). This means that the number of children sexually abused by adults is even less. To find this number, we use this calculation:
0.23 (0.009) = d
0.00207 = d or 0.002 = d
0.009 - 0.002 = e
0.007 = e or 7/1000 = e
This percentage of 23% can be used to calculate the same probability on the other statistics as-well.
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Re: How many Children Experience Sexual abuse?

Příspěvekod Někdo » 21.8.2018 20:05:30

Ok, I did not follow the calculations closely, but I believe there is a huge amount of child abuse incidents which have not been and will never be reported. So maybe the stats which say that 1 in 5 or 1 in 10 children are/were abused before reaching adulthood just use more data points (?)
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Re: How many Children Experience Sexual abuse?

Příspěvekod Neptun » 21.8.2018 20:38:10

It is also my impression that the statements reporting high percentages try to estimate hidden real numbers of abuse which are not reported in the statistics Selynt uses for calculation.
My objections would be that not all cases of reported body contacts of children and adults were abuse or molesting, but that they were pleasant informed voluntary activity; and that reporting abuse of 17 y/o = adult persons as child abuse is great non-sense.
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Re: How many Children Experience Sexual abuse?

Příspěvekod Selynt » 22.8.2018 9:37:34

Někdo píše:Ok, I did not follow the calculations closely, but I believe there is a huge amount of child abuse incidents which have not been and will never be reported. So maybe the stats which say that 1 in 5 or 1 in 10 children are/were abused before reaching adulthood just use more data points (?)


You make a very good point, but I am well aware of this. Because so much child sexual abuse is unreported, it is very difficult to figure out how many children experience sexual abuse; however, the statistic I calculated is how many children we know are sexually abused. Since there is no reliable way to determine how many cases go unreported, the statistic I presented is the most accurate statistic we can have. Anything beyond the statistic I presented is pure speculation and is not fact. What I presented is factual.

Most researchers, myself included, speculate that between 10% and 60% of child sexual abuse is not reported, but even if we factor in the most extreme scenario that is speculated, 60%, we still have: a chance of about 1 in 375 children to be sexually abused in one year. This is still absolutely drastic.

To assume that the 1 in 5 statistic is correct, most likely they are using a range of 18 years (even this is inaccurate because child of different ages have different chance of experiencing sexual abuse), that would mean that only 4% of CSA is reported and 96% of CSA is not reported. That is absolutely ridiculous to think of; those percentages go far beyond any scientific speculation, and are simply not logical. Even 60% is very high.
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Re: How many Children Experience Sexual abuse?

Příspěvekod Selynt » 22.8.2018 9:48:36

Neptun píše:My objections would be that not all cases of reported body contacts of children and adults were abuse or molesting, but that they were pleasant informed voluntary activity; and that reporting abuse of 17 y/o = adult persons as child abuse is great non-sense.


Yes, it is scientifically inaccurate to consider a 17 year old a child; however, for consistency, I also used 17 year olds as children in my calculations, and my numbers were still drastically different. If I were to only use children that are prepubescent, the number would be even smaller than 1 in 2000 in one year; however, prebubescent kids are more likely to experience CSA according to the statistics I used. I encourage you to look at my references in the document titled, Child Maltreatment 2016.

In other statistics, they can very easily consider non abusive things to be sexual abuse e.g., a man kissing a a little girl on the cheek. There is nothing sexual or abusive about a kiss, but in self-reported studies, it can be seen as CSA, which is completely inaccurate.

In the statistics I presented, all of the CSA cases were investigated by police and were found to be CSA. The police would not include these false mishaps like the example about the man kissing the girl.
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Re: How many Children Experience Sexual abuse?

Příspěvekod Někdo » 22.8.2018 14:31:01

Selynt píše:Most researchers, myself included, speculate that between 10% and 60% of child sexual abuse is not reported, ...
Selynt píše:To assume that the 1 in 5 statistic is correct, most likely they are using a range of 18 years (...), that would mean that only 4% of CSA is reported and 96% of CSA is not reported.

Cannot speak for the USA, but here in the Czech Republic organizations assume that only 8% of all sexual abuses are reported and this number drops to 3% if the crime is committed within family members. Even if these guesses are correct, please note they are not specific to child abuse.

Because most child sexual abuse crimes are committed within families, I can easily imagine the percentage of reported crimes can match with your findings - that only 4% of them are ever reported. Some more points:

  • Reporting family child sexual abuse can quickly destroy otherwise well working families: father in prison, mother without money, daughter bullied in school, condemning neighbors etc.
  • There may be a gray zone of some "almost innocent sexual contact" between an adult and a child, which would still be considered as child sexual abuse when reported (and accounted by the activists), but may not be seen so seriously by family members.
If we combine the two points above, I can see why so many crimes will never make it to the court... and your statistic.
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Re: How many Children Experience Sexual abuse?

Příspěvekod Gabriel Svoboda » 22.8.2018 16:56:37

I agree with Někdo, I can easily imagine only 4 % of child sexual abused are reported to anyone. In addition to the reasons he mentions, shame has to be taken into account. Many abused children feel too ashamed to tell anyone they are abused. If anyone feels ashamed, you will hardly ever learn about it, because he/she won't tell you; this is how shame works.

Selynt píše:the statistic I presented is the most accurate statistic we can have.


No, we can have a more accurate statistics: simply ask adults whether they were abused when they were children. This is where Někdo's figure - 8 % - comes from.

Někdo's figure comes from good researchers who asked "did you feel sexually abused when you were a child?". There are also bad researchers, who ask something like "when you were a child, did it happen to you that" ... (for example) ... "you were having bath or shower in the presence of an adult?". And if the respondent answers "yes", it automatically counts as sexual abuse, even if the respondent didn't feel abused at all. These bad researchers project their hypermoralistic ideas about life into their researchs, so they count for example any instance of nudity as sexual abuse. This is where the figures like 25% come from.

(But I have to alert readers that many children can sincerely feel harshly sexually abused when they have to be nude in the presence of another person, even in clearly non-sexual contexts and even if the person is of the same sex. "Children have to be nude" doesn't mean just "children are directly ordered to be nude", it may also mean "it is generally expected that they will be nude and it would take some effort to act in nonconformity to this expectation". It may happen in communal changing rooms, communal showers etc. Such children will feel abused but they will be afraid to refuse aloud to be nude and they won't tell anyone they felt abused; this is how shame works, as I stated above.)

Neptun píše:My objections would be that not all cases of reported body contacts of children and adults were abuse or molesting, but that they were pleasant informed voluntary activity


On the other hand, if the activity was clearly sexual (not just innocent nudity or things like that), it should count as abuse even if the child didn't feel abused at the moment. It should probably be counted as a different kind of abuse and it should definitely not be included in the "rape" category, but it should be counted in some way, since voluntary sexual activities with children are not 100% safe and uncontroversial.
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Re: How many Children Experience Sexual abuse?

Příspěvekod Selynt » 22.8.2018 20:34:34

Někdo píše:Cannot speak for the USA, but here in the Czech Republic organizations assume that only 8% of all sexual abuses are reported and this number drops to 3% if the crime is committed within family members. Even if these guesses are correct, please note they are not specific to child abuse.


I have never seen a scientific study that suggested that only 3%-8% of CSA is reported. In fact, I have never seen one that suggested that less than 33.3% of CSA is reported. You are maybe thinking of the very popular statistic that says "Fabricated sexual abuse reports constitute only 4% to 8% of all reported cases" (https://alabamacacs.org/child-abuse-inf ... tatistics/) (https://www.d2l.org/wp-content/uploads/ ... orting.pdf); however, this is talking about case that have been reported that were found to be fake, not the amount of cases that were reported. Even when speaking of victims of forceful rape, it's speculated that over 12% is reported.

If you have a link to a scientific study that suggests that only 3%-8% of CSA is reported, please share it with me. I would find such a study very useful in my research.

Někdo píše:Because most child sexual abuse crimes are committed within families, I can easily imagine the percentage of reported crimes can match with your findings - that only 4% of them are ever reported.


I find it hard to for there to be such a difference between US and Czech society. In the US, it is estimated that only around 23%-33% of CSA is done by family. That number drops as low as 10% when speaking of boys only. That is not the majority.

Gabriel Svoboda píše:Many abused children feel too ashamed to tell anyone they are abused. If anyone feels ashamed, you will hardly ever learn about it, because he/she won't tell you; this is how shame works.


More than 40% of children disclose CSA to at least one person within just a few years of it happening (https://www.d2l.org/wp-content/uploads/ ... orting.pdf). More than half of children disclose CSA to at least one other person. And it is speculated that over 2/3's of CSA cases are reported after they have been disclosed.

Again, maybe it is different in the Czech Republic, but in the USA, if a child tells you they have been sexually abused, you are required by law to report it to the police within 24 hours. In most states, if you do not report it within 24 hours, you could be put in prison for as long as 5 years (One woman was put in prison for over 30 years for failing to report) and face a fine of as much as $50,000 (which can be as high as 1 million dollars if it happened in a school) (https://www.childwelfare.gov/pubPDFs/report.pdf). Keeping CSA a secret is almost as serious of a crime as the CSA itself.

Gabriel Svoboda píše:No, we can have a more accurate statistics: simply ask adults whether they were abused when they were children. This is where Někdo's figure - 8 % - comes from.


This study has been done and repeated by researchers thousands of times in the United States. They are not accurate. The reason why is because some studies find that only 1% of adults say they experienced CSA, and in other studies they found that 80% of adults say they experienced CSA. Even if you average all of these self reported surveys, they come to about 8% - 25%. This statistic is still not accurate because it doesn't take into account the amount of bias in each study. For example, it is very difficult to determine if a researcher simply only included surveys which confirmed CSA, or if they added hundreds of fake ones to make it look like only a small amount of people experienced CSA. Another reason these statistics vary is because it is very rare for two research studies to use the same definition of CSA; therefore, only one study may consider something CSA that another study does not, and that will change their statistical findings in the study.

All of this is pure speculation and is not practically or logically accurate at all. It is useful to give us a general idea that more children are sexually abused than is reported, but we cannot use these studies to determine how many children are sexually abused since there is no way to filter bias, and because there is no way to tell if someone was lying about whether or not they were sexually abused, which previously, we saw that between 4 and 8% of CSA reports to police are fake; it is likely that even more disclosures are.

Therefore, yes, the most accurate factual statistic we have is the amount of children who were found to be sexually abused after investigation by the police which is 1 in 110 in 18 years.

If we tried to accurately base this statistic off of speculation, it would be: "between 2% and 25% of children experience CSA in 18 years." Do you see why this is not accurate? There is too wide of a variance. This is the most accurate empirical statistic we have, but it is not practical. I am not in anyway implying that less than 25% of children experience CSA, I am simply saying that we only have practical evidence to show that .9% of children experience CSA.

All this said, you do have a good point. In the first post, I called these statistics fake, which they are not, they are simply speculative. I will change the way I said that. I am really glad I posted this here, all of your insight has been very helpful! Thanks!
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Re: How many Children Experience Sexual abuse?

Příspěvekod Někdo » 23.8.2018 11:22:20

Selynt, it seems to me that what you are looking for or want to report on are statistics based on CSA cases investigated by police and closed by court. In that case, the numbers you come with sounds reasonable to me.

For the reasons both me and Gabriel described, I think the number of unreported crimes is huge. Obviously, when they are not reported, investigated and closed, all you can have about them is more or less educated guess, based on more or less data points.

So depending on what you are trying to achieve or prove, you can either choose the exact correct number of closed cases, or more or less incorrect guess of non-reported cases.

Selynt píše:If you have a link to a scientific study that suggests that only 3%-8% of CSA is reported, please share it with me. I would find such a study very useful in my research.

Sorry I cannot find it today. It was some Czech website about sexual abuse, but you would not consider it good enough for your calculations anyway (it was just the numbers without any other explanation).

Selynt píše:I find it hard to for there to be such a difference between US and Czech society.

There is a huge difference between our societies, for good or bad. But I believe we are not so different when it comes to prevalence of CSA. We are not India :-). Although it is possible we tend to report less crimes then people in USA, I think the fundamental reasons for not reporting are same in both countries.

Honestly, I do not care that much about statistics, especially those limited to US (or any other country), and I do not care that much about what is accounted as CSA and what is not. I just hope and wish happy childhood without any kind of abuse or violence to all children around the world +++:

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